Nigeria is long overdue for a population census. However, with the National Population Commission (NPC) proposing an estimated c...
Nigeria is long overdue for a population census. However, with the National Population Commission (NPC) proposing an estimated cost of N942 billion, can the country afford it given its current economic and political challenges? Even if we can, is it the best use of our resources? Indeed, when the proposed budget was made public, some Nigerians—ever witty and skeptical—suggested that the government should "just share the money and let us count ourselves!"
Since our first post-independence census in 1962, Nigeria’s population figures have been deeply politicized. This is largely because federal and other resource allocations, as well as voter registration (some say voter allocations!), depend heavily on these numbers. At a time when political, religious, tribal, and regional divisions are more pronounced than ever, conducting a new census would likely intensify these tensions. Given this reality, it would be nearly impossible to produce population figures that would be widely accepted. That’s why, for now, our population estimates rely on extrapolations from past censuses, along with data from international development partners and multilateral institutions. In my view, this suffices—why divert scarce resources to a process that could create more controversy than clarity?
Moreover, Nigeria already has multiple databases that could serve as proxies—National ID, driver’s license, BVN, and telecom subscriber data, among others. With advanced big data analytics, these can be integrated to generate reasonably reliable population estimates. Instead of a costly, full-scale enumeration, we should leverage technology to reduce costs and improve accuracy. Our IT sector should be challenged to develop innovative solutions for this purpose.
This is why I support the Tinubu administration’s cautious approach to authorizing a new census at this time. If we can barely afford the financial burden, the political costs could be even greater. What’s the point of gathering expensive data if it only deepens divisions and remains underutilized?
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